I watched an unreasonable amount of curling over the last two weeks. No regrets. Now back to actually using the second monitor for work. Here's this week's Flow.
— Maddie
The Great Tariff Reset
The US Supreme Court struck down President Trump's IEEPA-based tariffs on Thursday in a 6-3 ruling, declaring that emergency economic powers do not include the authority to impose import taxes.
Within hours, Trump signed a new 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. By Friday, he'd raised it to 15%, effective February 24.
The US government collected roughly $133.5 billion under the now-invalidated IEEPA tariffs as of December, per CBP data. The Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates the real total is north of $175 billion, accounting for the $500 million collected daily since. Now importers want it back, lawsuits are piling up, and the refund process, in Kavanaugh's own words, is going to be 'a mess.'
Every bilateral deal negotiated under IEEPA authority (India at 18%, Indonesia at 19%, the Canada and Mexico frameworks) now sits in legal limbo. Those deals were built on authority the Supreme Court just said doesn't exist.
The replacement tariff is a flat 15% on everything, with exemptions for critical minerals, metals, and energy products. It expires in 150 days unless Congress extends it. Trade experts cited by Fortune are already arguing the Section 122 authority is legally questionable too, since it requires a balance-of-payments deficit that, technically, the US doesn't have.
The old tariffs are dead. The new ones might be too. The refund fight will take years. And every sourcing strategy built around a specific tariff rate just became a rough estimate with an expiry date.
What Else is Moving
🚢 $4.2 billion: Hapag-Lloyd is acquiring Zim in the biggest container shipping deal in years, paying $35 per share for the Israeli carrier. That's a 58% premium to Zim's recent trading price. The combined fleet: over 400 vessels and 3 million TEU of capacity. Part of the deal carves out a "New ZIM" entity that stays in Israel, run by investment firm FIMI. Buying a shipping line at a 58% premium while container rates fall for the sixth straight week is either a supreme act of confidence or the most expensive bet in maritime history.
📉 $1,919 per container, sixth straight weekly decline: The Drewry World Container Index fell another 1% this week, extending the streak. Carriers responded with 107 blank sailings in February alone, 38% more than originally planned, with 63% of cancellations on transpacific routes. Either blank sailings are losing their leverage, or demand is softer than the industry wants to say out loud.
🤖 "We're the disruptor, not the disrupted": C.H. Robinson's CEO responded to the AI freight selloff. Bozeman went on record this week insisting the brokerage giant is driving AI adoption, not running from it. Meanwhile, SemiCab published data claiming its operators handle over 2,000 loads per year compared to the industry benchmark of roughly 500. C.H. Robinson's confidence is clear. Whether the market shares it is a different question entirely.
🇮🇳 Three supply chain deals in seven days: A rare earths partnership with Brazil, formal membership in a US-led supply chain security pact, and a cabotage policy reversal that The Loadstar says will reshape regional transhipment flows. India isn't just positioning itself as the alternative to China. It's building the infrastructure of that alternative, one handshake at a time. The question (as always) is whether the ports can keep up with the diplomats.
By The Numbers
That's how much US imports from China fell in 2025, year over year, per Flexport data.
But the goods didn't vanish. Much of that volume shifted to Vietnam, Indonesia, and India, which are building port capacity, manufacturing corridors, and trade agreements to make sure it stays. What started as tariff avoidance is starting to look like permanent infrastructure.
Overall ocean container volumes to the US still dropped 14%, meaning even the new routes couldn't fully replace what China lost. The trade deficit still hit a record anyway. The water's moving, but there's less of it.
Water Cooler Ammo
⚓ Fee on every foreign-built ship entering a US port: The White House Maritime Action Plan proposes charging vessels by the kilo for the privilege of docking in America. At the high end, that's $1.5 trillion over ten years. Less than 1% of commercial ships are built in the US.
🚢 Two hemispheres, one message: Denmark detained a sanctioned container ship this week while New Zealand unveiled its largest-ever sanctions package targeting Russian-linked shipping, preceding a similar update from the EU. The shadow fleet is running out of shadows.
🤖 $150K for humans to leave, $120M for robots to stay: A judge approved UPS's $150,000 buyout offers to drivers. Separately, UPS is investing $120 million in 400 Pickle Robots to unload trucks. One company, two headlines, one very clear direction.
The Last Mile
The Supreme Court rewrote the tariff rules. The White House rewrote them back. Somewhere, a supply chain planner is updating a spreadsheet for the third time this week.
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