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Two things happened this weekend: four people came back from the Moon, and Justin Bieber headlined Coachella. Some weeks are just bigger than others. Let's get into it.
— Maddie
Market Update
Container rates edged up for the sixth consecutive week as carriers push emergency bunker surcharges and Cape diversions keep absorbing capacity. US diesel hit $5.64, its 12th straight weekly increase and the highest since July 2022. Both numbers pointing the same direction, both driven by the same strait.
21 Hours, No Deal
VP JD Vance flew home from Islamabad Saturday without a deal after 21 hours of direct US-Iran negotiations, the first face-to-face talks since the war began six weeks ago. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf led Tehran's delegation across an agenda covering Hormuz, nuclear commitments, war reparations, sanctions, and Lebanon. Nothing stuck.
The ceasefire that made these talks possible was itself a last-minute save: on April 7, hours before Trump's deadline to strike Iran's power grid, both sides agreed to a two-week pause.
Still blocked: A handful of vessels have transited since the ceasefire, the strait remains functionally blocked. Iran is running a selective passage system, letting a few approved ships through while maintaining its toll demands. Brent crude, which dipped from $112 to $92 on ceasefire news, has climbed back above $96 as markets price in the gap between the ceasefire on paper and the strait in practice.
The two-week ceasefire expires around April 21. Vance left empty-handed. Tehran signaled it may not return without broader concessions, including an end to Israeli operations in Lebanon. Saudi Arabia's Petroline workaround is running at capacity, but it routes all that oil through Bab al-Mandeb, where Houthis are now operating their own vetting system. One workaround. Two tollbooths. April 21.
What Else is Moving
⚖️ April 20, Day 48 of 150: CBP confirmed that Phase 1 of its CAPE tariff refund tool launches April 20. The first IEEPA refunds (from the $166 billion the Supreme Court invalidated) will cover straightforward unliquidated entries, with 60-90 day payouts. Complex cases wait for later phases. All importers’ eyes on April 20.
⚖️ "Unreviewable," says the government. On April 10, the three-judge CIT panel hearing oral arguments on Section 122 was openly skeptical, repeatedly questioning whether the statute's conditions had been met. The government argued presidential power here is "unreviewable." The refund infrastructure is launching. The replacement tariff might not survive the courtroom.
📬 20%, not 66%: Amazon and USPS reached a deal that cuts Amazon's postal volume by 20%, averting a threatened 66% reduction for the agency. USPS processes over a billion Amazon shipments annually, a relationship worth roughly $6 billion per year to an agency that projected it could run out of cash by October 2026. The deal needs Postal Regulatory Commission approval. Amazon, meanwhile, is investing $4 billion in its own rural delivery network.
🚛 48 hours, 20 states, then police: Mexico's nationwide trucker strike ended Wednesday after two days of highway blockades across the Bajio manufacturing region and northern border crossings. It didn't end because demands were met. It ended because police crackdowns in Tlaxcala, Veracruz, and Chihuahua made continuing dangerous. ANTAC, the trucking association behind the action, said it "cannot guarantee the integrity, freedom or life of those who protest." Cargo theft enforcement, diesel costs, infrastructure investment: all still unaddressed. The freight moved again. The grievances didn't.
By The Numbers
Gulf carriers' share of global air cargo capacity this month, down from 12% before the conflict, per Air Cargo Week. Emirates is operating at roughly 75% of rated capacity. Etihad: around 50%. Qatar Airways: approximately 20%.
One-third of Asia-Europe air freight normally connects through Middle East hubs. That traffic is now competing for space on fewer, longer routes, adding 1-3 hours of flight time and burning more fuel per shipment. The planes are still flying. There are just a lot fewer of them, going the long way around.
Water Cooler Ammo
🚀 695,081 miles, 1,100 suppliers, one supply chain. NASA's Artemis II splashed down Friday after the first crewed lunar flyby since 1972. The supply chain behind it stretched across hundreds of US manufacturers, from aluminum-lithium alloy in West Virginia to spacecraft windows in Ohio, with DLA Energy managing the fuel logistics. Four people went around the Moon. A few hundred factories got them there.
⚓ Maersk asked the FMC to waive the 30-day notice period and fast-track an emergency bunker surcharge during a literal war. The FMC said no. Again. Second rejection in a month, citing insufficient "good cause," even as fuel costs have risen roughly 50%. Bureaucracy: consistent even in a crisis.
🧪 The awkward call to Moscow that never happened. Samsung and SK Hynix quietly secured long-term helium contracts with US industrial gas firms, sidestepping the Russian supply option that looked inevitable a month ago. Qatar's Ras Laffan facility is still offline, but the chip supply chain found a different detour. The sanctions question everyone was bracing for just got quietly answered.
The Last Mile
After 21 hours of diplomacy and six weeks of crisis, the most important number in global shipping is still a single-digit countdown.
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