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Summer vibes are here and London is getting its first heat wave of the year. Everyone keeps telling me to buy an A/C before prices go up. Apparently supply chain anxiety is contagious.
— Maddie
Market Update
The two arrows are pointing in opposite directions this week, which tells you everything about how confused this market is. Container rates up 6% (early peak season + carrier surcharges, third straight weekly increase) while Brent dropped 6% on deal hopes (steepest weekly fall since the crisis began).
Largely Negotiated
President Trump said Saturday that a deal to end the Iran war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz has been "largely negotiated" and would be announced shortly. Hours later, Iran's state media basically said 'lol no' but in diplomatic language, adding that the strait would stay under Iranian management.
The oil market heard "deal" and didn't wait for the details: Brent crude fell more than 5% to close at $103.54, its steepest weekly drop since the crisis started. The proposed framework reportedly includes a formal end to the war, a 60-day ceasefire extension, unfreezing of Iranian assets, an end to the US naval blockade, and a two-month window for nuclear talks. Secretary of State Rubio said there were "good signs" but called any deal "unfeasible" if Iran insisted on permanently controlling Hormuz shipping.
The nuclear question hasn't moved since Islamabad collapsed in April: Iran wants the war ended before discussing enrichment, the US wants enrichment commitments before ending anything. Everyone's gotten better at the press conferences but the actual negotiation hasn't moved.
And for your planning purposes, the important number isn't $103 oil. It's the gap between "deal announced" and "ships actually moving." There are 1,500 ships parked in the Gulf right now, insurers won't touch them, and Iran's toll booth is still open and happily accepting yuan. Even a signed deal won't move ships immediately — reinsurers will want weeks of stability before reinstating coverage, and a toll booth doesn't close just because someone called the negotiation "largely" done.
What Else is Moving
🚛 Truckload spot rates just hit all-time highs, beating even the COVID peaks. The main drivers are a months-long FMCSA compliance crackdown and nearshoring pulling capacity inland — the market was already a pressure cooker before Montgomery turned the heat up. Now brokers are panic-scrubbing their carrier lists, anyone with a "conditional" safety rating is getting ghosted by load boards, and early estimates put liability insurance increases at 3x to 10x. Peak season hasn't even started yet.
⚖️ The government is collecting a tariff it lost in court while refunding a different tariff it also lost in court. The Federal Circuit's administrative stay keeps CBP collecting the 10% Section 122 tariff that the CIT ruled unlawful on May 7, and no oral argument has been scheduled. Meanwhile CAPE Phase 1 has cleared $35.5 billion in IEEPA refund claims with payments hitting bank accounts. If your finance team is confused, they're paying attention.
📦 One week until FDXF. The FedEx board formally approved the spinoff on May 13, and FedEx Freight starts trading on the NYSE on June 1. Shareholders get one Freight share for every two FedEx shares. FedEx keeps a 19.9% stake (to sell within two years) and pockets a $4.1 billion cash dividend at separation. North America's largest LTL carrier goes solo next week with 365 locations, 30,000 vehicles, and roughly $9 billion in annual revenue — making this possibly the most amicable divorce in logistics history.
By The Numbers
Roughly half of all cargo theft incidents in Q1 2026 involved carriers with clean operating histories and legitimate MC credentials, per Overhaul's quarterly report.
Overall theft actually dipped year-over-year for the first time since 2021, but deceptive pickup schemes (criminals impersonating carriers with forged credentials) jumped 31%. So the good news is there's less theft. The bad news is the thieves now have better paperwork than most of your actual carriers.
Water Cooler Ammo
🤖 DHL Supply Chain has 8,000 robots deployed across its global warehouses, built with Locus Robotics, Boston Dynamics, and Robust AI. When asked if 8,000 robots reduce labor dependency, CIO Sally Miller skipped the usual "our people are our greatest asset" script and just said "Yes, it does."
🚛 Humble Robotics emerged from stealth with an electric hauler that doesn't have a cab. No cab, no seat, no steering wheel. 200-mile range, already in pilot with logistics providers, and probably the most confidently named headless vehicle in freight history.
🌊 The Panama Canal ruled out transit restrictions through December 2026 despite NOAA's 62% El Niño probability, keeping 38 daily transits. If you remember the $200k auction slots during the drought, this is them basically saying "we're fine, please stop panicking." For once, good news from a chokepoint.
The Last Mile
That's the week. Go enjoy something that doesn't require a customs declaration.
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